Escalating Verbal Conflict Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Raises Anxieties of Conflict

Mounting concerns exist over the possibility of armed conflict between East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a long-standing battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash erupted in which numerous people died.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

In the face of ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to concise remarks on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back former lands.

Government spokespeople warned on 16 September that efforts to justify "blatant hostility" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has shown graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the military, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the ruler cancelled this system and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader the president. The two endorsed a statement that the conflict was over – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated again.