A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
